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KAUAI 2002 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH PAUL BREWBAKER
Is Kauai's Economy on the Right Track?
The 2001 visitor numbers are in, let's see how we faired.
By Justin Britt
The post 9.11, 2001 economic numbers have arrived
and the Kauaian had a chance to listen in with Paul
H. Brewbaker—Chief Economist and Vice President of Bank of Hawaii—as
he made his economic forecast and released some figures that will be available
at www.boh.com
later this month.
As I predicted in my last article, Kauai faired better than the other
islands do to its dependence on domestic visitors and time-share rentals
(see the numbers). What was surprising was the fact
that Hawaii is not suffering from a typical
recession. What we are witnessing is what Paul calls a, “dot
com recession,” which was in the works and would have occurred
with or without the Sept 11th tragedy.
Many economists predict that in 2002 we will see the economy fight back.
Computer prices are plunging and technology is on the rise. Include a
drop in the state income tax and increased Federal support and we should
see consumer confidence go way up.
“I feel good about 2002!” exclaims Paul, who believes that Kauai’s
economy will return to normal (Paul predicts that we will see something
similar to the 3% economic growth Hawaii was having before the terrorist
attack) by the middle of this year.
You can see by the numbers below, that domestic visitors have been effected
the least by the Sept 11th incident, while international travel is down
45%. Also, group tours and packaged tours have been hit hard, unlike independent
visitors who are only down by 13%.
Domestic travelers make up a larger percentage of our visitors compared
with other island (90.1% of Kauai's tourism is domestic, Oahu's is only
60% - see 2000 article). This is one
of the reasons why we were least effected by 9.11, showing a decreased
of 18.3% in island tourism compared to Oahu’s 29% drop off.
Kauai’s transformation of hotels to timeshares has also benefited
the island in the economic recession. While hotel and condo occupancy
are down 34% and 24% respectively, timeshares have seen their tenancy
soar 7.3% in 2001.
Paul reads this as, “a pattern of resilience for the type of traveler
that visits Kauai.”
I agree with Mr. Brewbaker. Hawaii and specifically Kauai will see a return
to it’s old form in 2002. Expect tourism to rise to the levels we
were used to before the terrorist attacks. Also, we may witness a heavy
upswing in the economy as people who cancelled their trip after 9.11 begin
to travel.
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Analysing the Visitor's Census
Reviewing the 2001 visitor numbers
2000 visitor numbers for Kauai
 See
the 2001 Visitor Census
Visit boh.com
Bank of Hawaii's economy section provides up to date information and evaluations
of Hawaii's economy |
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